Report 2005-qrt2: April - June

Workshops

The Project Manager participated to and, for some, co-organised the following SRNWP Workshops:

First SRNWP PEPS Workshop, April 6, Bologna (Italy)

This Workshop showed that this Project is progressing well.

On the scientific side, two main developments remain to be done:

• calibration of the participating models - about 20 - used dailyin the computation of the mean and of the probabilistic forecasts
• verification of the PEPS probabilistic forecasts andcomparison - where meaningful - with other probabilistic forecasts produced inEurope.

On the administrative side, several contacts have been taken with ECOMET for the set-up of an algorithm determining the selling price of the PEPS forecasts as well as the financial returns for the participating NWS.

Second SRNWP Workshop on Short-range EPS, 7-8 April, Bologna (Italy)

This Workshop assembled more than 70 scientists and was characterised by a very high scientific level. All the oral presentations and all the posters can be found in the web site of the SRNWP Programme as well as the List of Participants and a first version of the report of the final discussion. This report will be extended in the course of the summer to become the Workshop Report.

EUCOS, Scientific Advisory Team (E-SAT) Meeting, 24-25 May, ECMWF

This was an important meeting. Detailed minutes will be made available by EUCOS.

Almost all the issues discussed are relevant for the NWP data assimilation, in priority for the synoptic scale. (In the future, it will be necessary for EUCOS to also consider the specific needs of the high-resolution NWP, as the operational models of the large majority of the EUCOS Members are aiming at that resolution as well as at resolutions of a few km).

Actions for the SRNWP Programme:

• the efforts made for the dissemination of hourly SYNOPshave been acknowledged. After the large improvement reached in Western Europe,the SRNWP Programme Manager will extend his efforts towards the Eastern Europe.
• the SRNWP Programme will also help the EUCOS Team bymotivating its Members to migrate to binary codes for the exchange RS data.

Third SRNWP Workshop on Statistical and Dynamical Adaptation of Model Results, 1-2 June, Vienna (Austria)

This meeting, opened by the Director of the ZAMG, has been attended by scientists of 14 European countries plus Canada.

The main scientific features of this Workshop were:

• The use of neural networks is now widely spread in Europe
• Increased sophistication in the use of the Kalman filterby considering model and observation 'noise' (i.e. inaccuracies)
• A new method has emerged for spatially down-scaledprobabilistic forecasts: the Bayesian Networks
• Application of the 'Bayesian Model Average' techniquewhich allows choosing the best model from a model ensemble for forecasts at agiven location and time range.

An extended report of the meeting as well as all the presentations will be made available on the web site of the SRNWP Programme in July.

15th ALADIN Workshop, 6-10 June 2005, Bratislava (Slovakia)

About 70 scientists for the largest part from the ALADIN and HIRLAM Consortia attended this important meeting in view of the deep collaboration these two Consortia have embarked on. ALADIN and HIRLAM planed to jointly develop their next very high resolution non-hydrostatic operational model.

Numerous presentations covered all the NWP aspects (dynamics, physics, the different interfacing issues, data assimilation, etc). Next to the scientific presentations, WG parallel sessions have also been held to discuss technical/practical issues.

Outlook 3rd Quarter 2005

Work on the different actions presently in planning or in progress:

• Final version of SRNWP Workshop Reports (in progress)
• Extension of the dissemination of the hourly SYNOPs inEurope (in progress)
• Proposal for a comparison of the four main European operationalNWP models for the short-range (in planning with the Met Office)
• Proposal for the extension of ECMWF hub function for thenon GTS and non real time precipitation observations (in planning)
• Preparation of the EWGLAM/SRNWP 2005 Annual Meeting to beheld in Ljubljana the 3-5 October with the Environmental Agency of the Republicof Slovenia (in progress)
• Consolidation of the web site of the SRNWP Programme (inprogress).